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New Brazil Election Polls Show Tied Presidential Race

Is momentum swinging to Bolsonaro or is Lula's rising approval the number that decides this race?
New Brazil Election Polls Show Tied Presidential Race
Above: Towels depicting Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in Brasília on Sept. 11, 2026. Image credit: Sergio Lima/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin


Pro-government narrative

Lula still leads the first round and the runoff, and government approval is climbing even during the ugliest week of the campaign. Approval near 47% is the number that actually predicts reelection, and the challenger has stalled since August. Meanwhile, the opposition candidate has to explain documented Banco Master dealings, so the race is tilting back toward Lula.

Government-critical narrative

Momentum has clearly flipped toward Flávio Bolsonaro, who now leads in runoff scenarios across multiple polls and in states holding the largest share of the electorate, and a lead there is the ballgame. Panic inside Lula's Workers' Party, with emergency meetings and calls for a harder line, says everything about who is winning.


Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.4.1

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.4.1