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Report: US Sees Hottest March in 132 Years of Records

Was March 2026's record heat a human-caused climate crisis or just natural weather cycles at work?
Report: US Sees Hottest March in 132 Years of Records
Above: A person walks along The Strand in Redondo Beach, California, during a heat wave on March 20, 2026. Image credit: Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Climate-concerned narrative

March 2026 wasn't just a hot month — it was a climate alarm bell, shattering 132 years of U.S. records with temperatures 9.35°F above the 20th-century average. Human-caused warming made extreme heat five times more likely across nearly a third of the Lower 48 on a single day, and that's not a coincidence. Fossil fuel dependence is delivering nonsurvivable conditions right now, and governments refusing to act are making it worse.

Climate-skeptic narrative

Record March temps look alarming until you factor in that a major El Niño is forming — a natural ocean cycle that redistributes existing heat, just like it did in 1998, 2016 and 2023. Natural variability, high-pressure ridging and ENSO cycles still drive short-term temperature extremes far more than a trace gas at 0.04% of the atmosphere. Calling this a climate emergency ignores the physics of how Earth's heat system actually works.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0