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Jenrick Sacked, Defects to Reform UK

Was Jenrick caught plotting betrayal, is this further proof a fracturing right wing, or is Jenrick smart to join the growing Reform party?
Jenrick Sacked, Defects to Reform UK
Above: Robert Jenrick (left) and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in London on Jan. 15. Image credit: Jordan Pettitt/PA Images/Getty Images

The Spin

Conservative Party narrative

Jenrick's betrayal was caught red-handed with documentary proof of his secret plotting to defect in the most damaging way possible. The leaked draft speech shows he was ready to stab Conservative colleagues in the back while praising Reform's leadership. Badenoch acted decisively to expose this duplicitous scheme before it could inflict maximum harm on the party.

Labour Party narrative

Badenoch's paranoid pre-emptive strike against Jenrick reveals her weakness, not strength. She couldn't tolerate a popular rival who consistently topped member approval ratings, so she manufactured a crisis based on dinner conversations. This latest blue-on-blue psychodrama perfectly captures the endless right-wing infighting that already alienates voters.

Reform Party narrative

Jenrick's move to Reform is pragmatic, not reckless. After years of loyalty, he was sidelined for voicing concerns many Tory voters share, especially on migration. Joining Reform aligns him with a growing right-leaning electorate and figures like Farage, giving him a clearer mandate, electoral protection in Newark, and a platform to shape policy rather than be muted by party discipline at a pivotal moment.

Metaculus Prediction



Political split

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RIGHT



© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0