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Colombia: ELN Declares Ceasefire Ahead of Legislative Elections

Does the ceasefire show ELN's commitment to democracy or does it reveal a guerrilla that has long missed its chance to negotiate peace?
Colombia: ELN Declares Ceasefire Ahead of Legislative Elections
Above: A National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel stands guard at the Catatumbo region in Colombia on March 8, 2025. Image credit: Stringer/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Government-critical narrative

This unilateral ceasefire ahead of crucial elections shows genuine commitment to democratic freedom, continuing a tradition maintained across the last four governments. While the ELN has long been accused of election interference, the group actually doesn't control electoral institutions or fund campaigns like narco-backed political clans do. All that the ELN wants is for Colombia to address its structural crisis through democracy and social justice.

Pro-government narrative

Increased military pressure from Colombian forces and potential joint operations with the U.S. have forced the ELN to change its posture in a desperate move for a group that has shown a blatant lack of commitment to genuine peace talks. Rebels not only failed to cease their drug-trafficking activities and child soldier recruitment, but they also destroyed negotiations through bloodshed and violence.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO



© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0