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China Resumes Military Flights Near Taiwan

Is China's military posturing near Taiwan a dangerous geopolitical threat or just empty sabre-rattling?
China Resumes Military Flights Near Taiwan
Above: Chinese J-20 fighter jets in Changchun, Jilin Province, on Sept. 16, 2025. Image credit: Zhou Guoqiang/VCG/Getty Images

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The timing of China's increased activity around Taiwan, coinciding with the U.S. sending more troops to the Middle East, is no coincidence — Xi Jinping has waited for the perfect window and found it. With depleted missile stockpiles and Marines in the Gulf, America has no real response ready in case of a Chinese attack, especially if it gets bogged down in a prolonged conflict, making this a dangerous moment for Taiwan.

Anti-China narrative

China's latest round of military drills around Taiwan is merely a return to its routine posturing. While the number of jets and vessels operating near the country has increased, the force is far from sufficient in size to constitute any credible threat. The reality is that China lacks the logistics, technology and military readiness for an actual invasion, a fact Xi is more than aware of.

Pro-China narrative

Lai's repeated attempts to reframe Taiwan as a sovereign equal to China are not mere rhetoric but a deliberate strategy to change the cross-strait status quo. With Taipei leveraging massive US arms purchases to advance its independence agenda, China's military response is not aggression — it is the predictable and legitimate cost of Lai's reckless gamble with the people of Taiwan.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO



© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0