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Brazil Elections: Flávio Bolsonaro Picks Gaspar as Running Mate

Is this choice a bold principled stand or simply making the best of being rejected by other parties?
Brazil Elections: Flávio Bolsonaro Picks Gaspar as Running Mate
Above: Flávio Bolsonaro (L) and Alfredo Gaspar during a press conference in Brasília on Aug. 5. Image credit: Ton Molina/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin


Right narrative

Gaspar is exactly the kind of running mate Brazil's right needs: a fighter with a real record on public security, proud of his roots and his values. With no kowtowing to identity politics pressure and no backroom deals with the so-called Centrão machine, this ticket stands for something. This is what separates it from the usual political noise.

Left narrative

Picking Gaspar isn't a rejection of the Centrão, but rather the only choice left for Bolsonaro after being rejected first. While the "no backroom deals" narrative sounds principled, it was only because Flávio brings nothing to the table: no vote-transfer power, no executive machinery to offer, no proven upside. Calling exclusion "independence" just rebrands rejection as strategy.


Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies


© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 7.4.1

© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 7.4.1