Maduro to Declare 'Republic in Arms' if US Attacks Venezuela

Maduro to Declare 'Republic in Arms' if US Attacks Venezuela
Above: Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro speaks during a press conference in Caracas on Sept. 1, 2025. Image copyright: Jesus Vargas/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Venezuela has become a narco-state and a key transit hub for cocaine shipments under Maduro's criminal and illegitimate leadership — posing a threat to the stability of the Western Hemisphere as a whole and the world. The U.S. buildup in the Caribbean is both an effort to rein in maritime drug trafficking and a show of force to the authoritarian Maduro regime. The U.S. doesn't want to start a war.

Establishment-critical narrative

Washington has provided no evidence for cartel accusations against Maduro, so this military buildup is just another doomed-to-fail regime change attempt disguised as anti-drug operations. If this was actually about tackling drug cartels, the Trump administration would have ruled out an invasion while cooperating with Venezuela to fight drug trafficking.

Metaculus Prediction



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.15.2

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2