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Vance Claims 'Good Chance' of US-UK Trade Deal, Warns Europe Not to be America's 'Vassal'

Vance Claims 'Good Chance' of US-UK Trade Deal, Warns Europe Not to be America's 'Vassal'
Above: U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance arrives for a "Make America Wealthy Again" trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, D.C. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

The U.S. has a vested interest in European success, but its relationship must be as a partner instead of a master that has underwritten peace and prosperity for decades. While the road to a U.K. trade deal remains easier than with other European allies, the message to the entire continent is clear: relationships must be reciprocal, and the era of freeloading is over.

Pro-Europe narrative

Rather than chasing a desperate alliance with Trump’s America, Europe must unite amid economic and geopolitical instability. Trump’s erratic tariffs prove the U.S. is an unreliable partner, meaning EU-U.K. cooperation is the continent's best option. Together, Europe has the economic strength to finally stand up to Washington.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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