US-Panama Deal Allows Limited Military Presence at Canal

    US-Panama Deal Allows Limited Military Presence at Canal
    Above: Panama Canal Administrator Dr. Ricaurte Vasquez Morales welcomes US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to the Panama Canal on April 8, 2025 in Panama City, Panama. Image copyright: Daniel Gonzalez/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Pro-Trump narrative

    The "first and free" military access deal marks a significant strategic victory for President Trump's assertive leadership, pushing back against China’s malign influence and restoring U.S. control over a vital global trade artery. This agreement safeguards American economic and security interests, strengthens regional stability, and reaffirms that respect is earned through strength — not concessions to foreign powers.

    Anti-Trump narrative

    The new agreement reignites painful memories of U.S. occupation, as Trump pushes to reassert military influence over Panama under the guise of countering China. Calls to revive old U.S. bases and demands for "first and free" warship access reveal a disregard for Panamanian sovereignty — fueling fears of neocolonialism and setting a dangerous precedent for U.S. intervention in the region.

    Pro-China narrative

    The U.S. troop deal in Panama is a clear act of geopolitical bullying, using false claims about China to justify a renewed military presence in Latin America. Unlike the U.S., China has never controlled, interfered with, or militarized the Panama Canal. The PRC's cooperation with Panama is peaceful, respectful, and mutually beneficial — based on trade, not coercion or threats.

    Metaculus Prediction



    The Controversies



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