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US-China Trade Talks in Stockholm End Without Clear Agreement

US-China Trade Talks in Stockholm End Without Clear Agreement
Above: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng (C) arrives for trade talks with the U.S. in Stockholm, Sweden, on July 29, 2025. Image copyright: PAR BACKSTROM/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-China narrative

While China hopes for a fair trade deal with the U.S., should talks end in failure and Washington reignite a tariff war, it could backfire on Americans. Global trade is a complex network, not a simple exchange, with tariffs on Chinese goods likely to raise prices and hurt U.S. businesses — this was seen when China shifted agricultural imports from the U.S. to Brazil after the 2018 tariffs. Trump should prioritize a deal for everyone to benefit.

Anti-China narrative

President Trump's tariffs are reshaping global trade for everyone. Deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, plus potential EU agreements, are opening markets and boosting U.S. exports with low tariffs, while the EU's 15% reciprocal tariffs could benefit American consumers and producers. Tariffs added $64 billion in revenue, with no major inflation spike — proving Trump's strategy stabilizes markets and counters China's dominance.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper


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