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US, Australia Sign $3B Critical Minerals Deal Amid China Export Controls

US, Australia Sign $3B Critical Minerals Deal Amid China Export Controls
Above: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.S. President Donald Trump shake hands after signing a rare earth minerals deal at the White House, Oct. 20, 2025. Image copyright: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The U.S.-Australia critical minerals agreement and AUKUS pact give both nations concrete leverage against China's near-monopoly on rare earths — securing supply chains vital for defense, clean energy and high-tech manufacturing. By combining Australia's resources with U.S. investment and technology, the partnership strengthens regional security, reduces reliance on China, and reinforces the strategic alliance, ensuring both nations are better positioned economically and militarily in the Indo-Pacific.

Pro-China narrative

Australia should carefully reconsider its alignment with the U.S., as the critical minerals deal and AUKUS pact primarily advance American strategic goals. China offers a steadier and more reliable partner, with established control over rare earths, efficient processing capabilities and predictable trade, avoiding the costly militarization and economic risk inherent in Washington's plans. By engaging pragmatically with Beijing, Canberra can maintain sovereignty, secure supply chains and prioritize a self-reliant defense and economic strategy.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.17.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.0