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US VP Vance Begins India Visit Amid Trade Deal Push

US VP Vance Begins India Visit Amid Trade Deal Push
Above: U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance reviews troops on April 21, 2025 in New Delhi, India Image copyright: Kenny Holston-Pool/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The Trump administration recognizes India as a strategic trade opportunity and geopolitical counterweight to China. America is offering a more than fair deal of $500 billion in potential two-way trade by 2030, and the close relationship previously established between the U.S. and Indian leaders should smooth the way for the mutually beneficial move.

Establishment-critical narrative

This isn't a deal offered on equal terms — Trump is threatening a "reciprocal" in order to push Modi's government towards action. Despite the U.S. president's bullying tactics, India has boldly asserted that it "won't negotiate at gunpoint," emphasizing the significance of protecting sensitive sectors like agriculture.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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