US Reduces Syria Military Presence to Single Base

US Reduces Syria Military Presence to Single Base
Above: U.S. Army soldiers board a CH-47 Chinook helicopter while departing a remote combat outpost known as RLZ on May 25, 2021 near the Turkish border in northeastern Syria.  Image copyright: John Moore/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

The Trump administration's strategic withdrawal represents a smart policy recalibration after decades of interventions by previous administrations with questionable results at best. The consolidation allows the U.S. to maintain its counterterrorism capabilities while reducing costly overseas commitments that are not in the U.S. national interest. Regional partners must step in to fill security gaps as Washington transitions from a guarantor to supporter role.

Anti-Trump narrative

The Trump administration's hasty withdrawal abandons the Kurdish allies who sacrificed thousands in the fight against IS alongside American forces. This retreat mid-transition creates dangerous security vacuums that extremist groups will exploit, especially as IS is already claiming new attacks. America's credibility suffers when it betrays loyal allies like the Kurds, who are now on their own again, including in the fight against Turkish-backed opposition factions.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the U.S. presents its pullout as a smart move, arguing that it alone cannot be made responsible for Syria's security, it is the U.S., through its anti-Assad proxy war, that created the miserable security situation in the first place. Washington is not only courting the jihadists it deployed against Assad in the name of democracy, but the U.S. military illegally occupies Syria's oil fields and agriculturally rich land. Now the U.S. is leaving the theater of yet another covert war.

Metaculus Prediction



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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