Us Trump Murder Data Killing Crime National Guard
AxiosDEC 2025
US Murder Rate Plunges 20% in 2025
Is falling murder due to community investment, or aggressive FBI enforcement under Trump?
Above: Donald Trump holds up a statistical graph on D.C. homicide rates at the White House on Aug. 11, 2025. Image credit: Eric Lee/The Washington Post/Getty Images
The Spin
Democratic narrative
This dramatic decline likely stems from massive community investments in infrastructure, jobs, and violence-prevention programs that flooded neighborhoods after the pandemic. Cutting federal grants and government spending now risks reversing these gains and letting violence creep back up.
Republican narrative
FBI violent crime arrests have doubled under Trump compared to the Biden years. This surge proves that prioritizing law enforcement resources and empowering local agents to crack down on criminals works. The numbers speak for themselves; giving the FBI the tools to go after violent offenders is making America safer than ever before.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
Political split
LEFT
RIGHT
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 6.18.0