Chancellor warned tax rises needed to fill 51bn black hole in public finances
Independent1 day
UK: Think Tank Claims Reeves Faces £41B Budget Gap
Above: Chancellor Rachel Reeves at Mansion House on July 15, 2025, in London, England. Image copyright: Carl Court/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
Recent NIESR figures paint an overly pessimistic picture that doesn't reflect current progress. While there is work to be done, the government is committed to growth without raising taxes through cutting red tape and unlocking billions in investment. With fiscal discipline and a long-term vision, the U.K. is on a path to higher wages, lower inflation and renewed economic strength.
Government-critical narrative
The latest NIESR analysis reveals a stark reality: the government faces an economic black hole that cannot be ignored. Weak growth, rising borrowing and unfunded pledges make current plans unsustainable, and this time Reeves can blame no one else but herself. The numbers don’t lie and, whether ministers admit it now or later, promises are set to be broken.