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UK Economy Grows 0.7% in Q1

UK Economy Grows 0.7% in Q1
Above: General view of the City of London skyline, Oct. 11, 2024.  Image copyright: Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

The U.K.'s impressive GDP growth shows its economy is turning a corner and that, against global uncertainty, the government’s choices are delivering real progress. With services and manufacturing driving momentum, this is proof their strategy is working. Although there’s more to do, this strong start shows the U.K. is on the right path to boost prosperity for working people.

Opposition narrative

A strong Q1 for the U.K. marks a short-lived boost, not a turning point. Much of this growth was driven by businesses rushing to act before Trump's tariffs hit. With rising unemployment, slowing wage growth, and looming tax hikes, deeper problems remain. This may be as good as it gets: headwinds are building, and the tough quarters are still ahead.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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