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UK Commits to 5% GDP Defense Spending by 2035

UK Commits to 5% GDP Defense Spending by 2035
Above: U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at 10 Downing Street on June 9, 2025. Image copyright: Jordan Pettitt - WPA Pool/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

In light of the increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape, the government’s commitment to raising defense spending demonstrates strong leadership in the face of unprecedented global threats. The 5% target will strengthen Britain’s military capabilities, reinforce its place in NATO, develop critical national infrastructure, and lead to fresh investment and new jobs for working people.

Right narrative

Starmer’s so-called commitment is political theatre, plain and simple. Rather than providing a clear and fully costed plan to reach NATO’s new target, the prime minister is peddling empty promises that push the necessary funding decisions conveniently beyond the next election. At present, the U.K. faces real threats that require immediate action, not bogus pledges.

Left narrative

The U.K.'s defense spending rush misallocates resources amid a cost-of-living crisis. While the disabled face benefit cuts and the NHS crumbles, arms firms profit from threat inflation. Russia's economy is smaller than Italy's, meaning the government should instead invest in healthcare, education, and social care. Real security means addressing poverty, not stockpiling weapons.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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