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Yemen: Heavy Clashes after UAE-Backed Forces Seize Key City

Do the recent clashes point to a dangerous expansion of the STC’s separatist drive, or to a promising offensive to liberate Hadramout from extremist elements?
Yemen: Heavy Clashes after UAE-Backed Forces Seize Key City
Above: Fighters from the Southern Transitional Council (STC) fire towards the positions of Saudi-backed government forces during clashes in the Sheikh Salim area in the southern Abyan province, Yemen, on May 11, 2020 Image credit: Nabil Hasan/Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The UAE-backed STC offensive marks a dangerous expansion of the group's separatist drive from Aden into eastern Yemen, deepening instability and further eroding the country's already fragile unity. Advancing into Hadramout under the guise of security operations allows the STC to facilitate the steady looting of local resources, leaving ordinary Hadramis to shoulder the costs of an agenda shaped in Abu Dhabi rather than by Yemenis themselves.

Narrative B

The STC's Promising Future operation liberated Hadramout from extremist elements and smuggling networks that had turned the region into a haven for terrorism. After exhausting diplomatic options, southern forces secured vital oil infrastructure and strategic corridors — with local populations celebrating by raising the historic South Yemen flag in a genuine expression of their desire for independence from decades of northern domination.

Narrative C

Foreign powers are carving up Yemen's oil-rich Hadramout through proxy militias, turning local wealth into a bargaining tool in the wider Saudi-Emirati rivalry. As rival forces entrench themselves around key oilfields and transport routes, Hadramout is increasingly shaped by external security agendas — a trajectory that risks pushing the region toward a Sudan-style proxy conflict and fragmentation.

Metaculus Prediction


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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0