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Trump Orders Moon Return by 2028, Lunar Base by 2030

Is Artemis a doomed political boondoggle, or America's essential race to secure the moon before China?
Trump Orders Moon Return by 2028, Lunar Base by 2030
Above: U.S. President Donald Trump watches a rocket lift off from Kennedy Space Center in Florida in May 2020. Image credit: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

America must return to the moon by 2028 and establish a permanent lunar outpost by 2030 to secure vital national interests and lead the emerging space economy. Private companies are investing billions in lunar exploration, water resources on the moon could revolutionize space commerce, and establishing facts on the ground matters as China races toward its own 2036 lunar landing.

Establishment-critical narrative

Trump's space ambitions face key engineering challenges with an implausible architecture that won't beat China to the moon. NASA lacks a functional lander, relies on an untested SpaceX Starship requiring dozens of risky orbital refueling missions, and operates under massive budget cuts gutting its crown jewel science programs while funneling money into a politically-driven moon mission set to fail.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0