Germany's Merz Meets Trump at White House

Germany's Merz Meets Trump at White House
Above: Friedrich Merz presents Donald Trump with the German birth certificate of Trump's grandfather during a bilateral meeting in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C. on June 5, 2025. Image copyright: Brendan Smialowski/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-US narrative

Trump's meeting with Merz proves it: the world isn't waiting for a "return to normal" — they're adapting to a new era Trump defines. NATO's now embracing Trump's once-dismissed 5% defense demand. Allies who once stalled now flatter and fall in line. Even Germany pledged more spending and brought him a gold-framed birth certificate. It's not a disruption anymore. It's dominance.

Pro-Europe narrative

Merz proved that steady diplomacy still works. Instead of clashing, he connected with President Trump on a personal level, winning real commitments for Europe. Merz secured a pledge to keep U.S. troops in Germany, increased pressure on Russia to end the war, and laid the groundwork for stronger trade ties. By focusing on respect and cooperation, Merz showed Europe can still count on America's support.

Opposition narrative

Merz came to Washington seeking U.S. backing to pressure Russia and end the war in Ukraine. What he got instead was a dismissive analogy about kids fighting in a park. Rather than push back, he offered praise, missing a crucial opportunity to demand stronger U.S. leadership against Putin's aggression. Merz came with a goal and left empty-handed.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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