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Sudan's RSF Declares Rival Government

    Sudan's RSF Declares Rival Government
    Above: Soldiers of the Sudanese army or affiliated forces pose for a picture while pumping their fists at the damaged presidential palace after recapturing the complex from RSF paramilitaries in Khartoum on March 21, 2025.  Image copyright: AFP/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    The RSF is building the only realistic future for Sudan. The Government of Peace and Unity will be a broad coalition that reflects the true face of the country, guarantees equal rights for all its citizens, separates religion from state, and ensures every region of Sudan has a voice in the affairs of the state. In stark contrast, an al-Burhan-led regime would represent a return to authoritarianism and risk plunging Sudan deeper into crisis.

    Narrative B

    The RSF's declaration of a rival government threatens Sudan's territorial integrity and stability. The announcement and the RSF's continued entrenchment in Darfur risk turning battle lines into permanent borders. This would only exacerbate the crisis, as Sudan's unity remains key for a sustainable resolution of the conflict.

    Metaculus Prediction



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