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Spat Threatens to Derail Next Round of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

Spat Threatens to Derail Next Round of Russia-Ukraine Negotiations
Above: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan chairs Turkey-Russia-Ukraine Trilateral Meeting at Dolmabahce Presidential Office in Istanbul, Turkey on May 16, 2025. Image copyright: Arda Kucukkaya/Anadolu/Contributor via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia expects that draft memorandums clarifying it and Ukraine's positions on a ceasefire will be exchanged during the meeting in Turkey next week. Following that, the teams can start making progress towards a negotiated settlement.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Ukraine is prepared for the next round of talks but Russia's draft memorandum needs to be provided in advance for the talks to take place. This is important so that Ukraine's delegation can be prepared and so that it has the relevant authorizations.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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