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South Sudan Vice President Under House Arrest Amid Rising Tensions

    South Sudan Vice President Under House Arrest Amid Rising Tensions
    Above: A South Sudanese military police officer sits on a pickup truck while monitoring the area as troops belonging to the South Sudanese Unified Forces take part in a deployment ceremony at the Luri Military Training Centre in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023 Image copyright: PETER LOUIS GUME/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

    The Spin

    Narrative A

    The arrest represents a clear power grab by President Kiir, who, at 73 years, has been systematically working to ensure his succession and sideline Machar through cabinet reshuffles and targeted arrests of opposition officials, effectively dismantling the peace agreement and threatening to plunge the country back into civil war.

    Narrative B

    The reports of Machar's arrest are grossly exaggerated and based on disinformation to discredit the government. The meeting with the vice president focused on temporary measures that restrict his freedom of movement and are part of broader security measures to improve his security amid the current volatile situation.

    Metaculus Prediction


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