Second Korean War Intervention
MetaculusFEB 15 2024
South Korea Sets Snap Presidential Election for June 3
Above: South Korea's prime minister and acting president, Han Duck-soo, after lawmakers passed a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul on Dec. 14, 2024. Image copyright: SeongJoon Cho/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-government narrative
The martial law declaration was necessary to overcome the political opposition's obstructionism and protect national interests from antistate forces. Yoon's actions were meant to defend against the Democratic Party's abuse of their parliamentary majority and attempt to obstruct his agenda. The ongoing trials against Lee demonstrate the legitimate concerns about corruption within the opposition.
Opposition narrative
Yoon's martial law decree was a dangerous attempt to subvert civilian rule and democracy, evoking traumatic memories of past military dictatorships. The deployment of troops to the National Assembly represented a clear violation of constitutional principles and an abuse of presidential power. The conservative party's embrace of conspiracy theories about election rigging and foreign interference has deepened political polarization.