Putin Meets Trump Envoy, No Ceasefire Agreements Announced

Putin Meets Trump Envoy, No Ceasefire Agreements Announced
Above: Vladimir Putin (R) greets Steve Witkoff before their talks in Moscow on April 25, 2025. Image copyright: Kristina Kormilitsyna/Pool/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Trump's diplomatic pressure through Witkoff is a serious attempt to end the Ukraine war through economic leverage. The threat of severe tariffs on Russian oil buyers, such as China and India, could significantly impact Russia's revenue streams. This approach combines direct diplomacy with economic consequences, potentially forcing Putin to negotiate.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Putin appears to be using these meetings to buy time while continuing military operations in Ukraine. Russian forces continue striking civilian targets and advancing territorially despite diplomatic talks. The Kremlin shows no signs of making meaningful concessions, suggesting these meetings serve Putin's stalling strategy rather than genuine peace efforts.

Pro-Russia narrative

Moscow supports a peaceful resolution and a lasting peace, not a temporary truce. However, any deal must reflect on-the-ground realities and root causes. Additionally, Ukraine must recognize the loss of five regions, withdraw troops, adopt neutrality, and reduce its military. A ceasefire could follow if Ukraine halts its mobilization and foreign arms supplies.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

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