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Putin Meets Erdoğan, Pezeshkian at Turkmenistan Summit

Does the Ashgabat summit signal Russian strength, or expose a growing reliance on authoritarian regimes such as Turkey and Iran?
Putin Meets Erdoğan, Pezeshkian at Turkmenistan Summit
Above: Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives at the airport in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan on Dec. 12, 2025. Image credit: Contributor/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The Ashgabat summit highlights why Western alignment remains essential for regional stability. Russia's outreach to Turkey and Iran reflects not renewed strength but the strategic vacuum created when Moscow isolates itself from rule-based institutions. Such trilateral formats operate without transparency or accountability, risking ad-hoc deals that undermine conflict management in Syria and the Caucasus and weaken the broader system of international norms.

Establishment-critical narrative

The summit instead exposes the limits of Western pressure and the erosion of a U.S.-led order. Years of sanctions and containment did not marginalize Russia but encouraged it to consolidate ties with Turkey and Iran on its own terms. By meeting as equal power centers and coordinating outside Western frameworks, the trio signals a shifting landscape in which alternative alliances gain weight and new circuits of influence bypass Washington and Brussels.

Metaculus Prediction



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO



© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.0

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0