Poilievre's defeat reflects voters' rejection of his Trump-style populism and "Canada First" rhetoric, which alienated moderate voters, particularly public servants in his Ottawa-area riding who feared job cuts under a Conservative government. The Liberal campaign successfully linked Poilievre to Donald Trump at a time when Canadians were concerned about Trump's tariff threats and comments about annexation.
The Conservative loss was more a strategic misstep than a rejection of conservative ideas. Despite gaining seats and achieving their highest vote share since 1988, the party focused its pre-election campaign on Trudeau — who resigned in March — leaving Poilievre without his intended opponent. Carney’s rise, combined with Trump’s trade war threats, reshaped the race, galvanizing the Left and creating a wave of opposition the Conservatives were powerless to stop.