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Turkey: PKK Declares Cease-Fire After 40 Years of Conflict

Turkey: PKK Declares Cease-Fire After 40 Years of Conflict
Above: A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of Abdullah Ocalan on Feb. 27, 2025. Image copyright: Delil Souleiman/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) announced a cease-fire on Saturday, following imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan's call for the group to lay down arms and dissolve itself after a 40-year armed conflict with Turkey that claimed over 40K lives.

  • The PKK's executive committee, based in northern Iraq, declared they would fully implement Öcalan's call for peace and a democratic society, stating that none of their forces would take armed action "unless attacked."

  • The peace initiative began in December when Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's coalition partner, nationalist leader Devlet Bahceli, extended an olive branch to the PKK, leading to unprecedented meetings between Öcalan and Kurdish politicians.


The Spin


Narrative A

The peace initiative is a strategic opportunity to end decades of conflict, strengthen regional stability, and expand democratic space in Turkey, while potentially securing Kurdish cultural and political rights. Additionally, peace with Öcalan could help Ankara secure its interests in Damascus and give Erdoğan a chance to extend his power domestically.


Narrative B

The disarmament process requires concrete guarantees to succeed, including Öcalan's release, improved prison conditions, and a secure negotiation environment. While there is a universal desire for peace, it's important to recognize that negotiating with a group designated as a terrorist organization will not tear down the wall of terror.


Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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