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NATO Allies Commit to 5% Defense Spending Despite Divisions

NATO Allies Commit to 5% Defense Spending Despite Divisions
Above: U.S. President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Netherlands on June 25, 2025. Image copyright: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Trump's demand for 5% defense spending represents long-overdue burden-sharing that will strengthen NATO while reducing America's disproportionate financial responsibility. The agreement proves Trump's tough negotiating tactics work, forcing European allies to finally pay their fair share after decades of free-riding on US security guarantees.

Establishment-critical narrative

The spending increase places unsustainable fiscal pressure on European nations already struggling with economic challenges, while Trump's wavering on Article 5 undermines alliance credibility regardless of his eventual reassurances. Spain's resistance highlights the unrealistic nature of the target.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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