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Markets Slip After Trump Says Tariffs Will Hit Globally

Markets Slip After Trump Says Tariffs Will Hit Globally
Above: A man looks at an electronic board displaying the numbers on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, showing the market down over four percent, in early afternoon trading in Tokyo, Japan, on March 31, 2025. Image copyright: Richard A. Brooks/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Anti-Trump narrative

Trump's reciprocal tariffs heighten recession odds, with Bloomberg's 30% estimate and Goldman Sachs' 35% forecast signaling a statistically significant risk — fueled by trade uncertainty and declining consumer spending. Even without a recession, his policies will slash growth, spike inflation, raise unemployment, and erode wealth, disproportionately taxing lower-income families while destabilizing global trade and empowering China.

Pro-Trump narrative

To hide the truth, anti-Trumpers stoke fear over tariffs and make wild predictions about chaos and job losses. In the real world, Trump's policies will finally achieve fair trade and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. — boosting national security and jobs. Past Trump successes, like the pre-COVID record-low unemployment and growth, prove it. Lower taxes and energy costs will also offset any demand dip, which is what critics refuse to include in their doom-and-gloom reports.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

More neutral establishment stance articles

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