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Jailed PKK Leader Öcalan Calls for Group to Disarm

Jailed PKK Leader Öcalan Calls for Group to Disarm
Above: Protesters raise yellow flags and portraits showing the face of Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) during a demonstration calling for his release, in the city of Qamishli, Syria on Feb. 15, 2023. Image copyright: Delil Souleiman/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), issued a historic call on Thursday urging his organization to lay down arms and dissolve itself after four decades of armed conflict with Turkey that has claimed over 40K lives.

  • The announcement came through a written statement read by members of Turkey's pro-Kurdish People's Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) who visited Öcalan at his island prison near Istanbul, where he has been held in solitary confinement since 1999.

  • The peace initiative was sparked in October when Devlet Bahceli, a Turkish nationalist leader and close ally of Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, suggested that Öcalan could be granted parole if he ordered his fighters to end their armed struggle.


The Spin


Narrative A

The PKK's disarmament would free Turkey from the shackles of terrorism and pave the way for lasting peace. The end of the PKK's war against the Turkish state would remove obstacles between Turks and Kurds, allowing for a terror-free future that doesn't compromise national security.


Narrative B

While peace is desirable, the Turkish state must first demonstrate a genuine commitment to upholding Kurdish rights, including freedom of expression and democratic self-organization. Previous peace efforts have failed due to a lack of concrete reforms and continued military operations that disproportionately affect Kurdish civilians. Likewise, regarding the SDF, negotiations with the new government in Damascus will dictate the group's posture going forward.


Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


The Controversies



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