Japan’s births fell to record low in 2024
NBCFEB 28
Japan's Birth Rate Falls to Lowest in 125 Years
Above: A man walks with a girl along a sidewalk in Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on Sept. 18, 2018. Image copyright: Akio Kon/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Facts
According to health ministry data released Thursday, Japan recorded 720,988 births in 2024, a 5% decrease from the previous year and the lowest number since record-keeping began in 1899. Meanwhile, the number of deaths increased to 1.62M — the largest-ever annual population decline.
The decline in births occurred across all 47 Japanese prefectures, with the trend accelerating beyond government projections despite various policy initiatives, including a ¥3.6T childcare package and support for expectant parents.
As the birth rate declines and the population ages, the government has allocated ¥37.7T ($253B) for social security in the upcoming fiscal year — a nearly 20% increase over the past decade.
The Spin
Narrative A
Behind Japan's declining rates of childbirth is a decline in marriage rates stemming from COVID. Therefore, the government has implemented measures to improve job opportunities, close the gender gap, and spur young people to marry and have children. These measures show promise in turning the tide.
Narrative B
The declining birth rate stems from fundamental policy failures and outdated assumptions about work, family, and social structure. Financial incentives are proving insufficient to address deeper cultural shifts and economic pressures that make raising children unattractive for young Japanese couples.