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Three Dead, Thousands Displaced as Heavy Rains Hit Southern Brazil

Above: Monitoring screens at the Defesa Civil RS headquarters on June 18, 2025. Image copyright: Defesa Civil RS

The Spin

Narrative A

Increasingly, severe rainstorms and flooding are being linked to global warming and climate change. Warmer weather allows air to retain more water vapor, which is why we must implement policies to cool the global temperature, save lives, and avoid billions of dollars in damage.

Narrative B

It's easy to dismiss extreme weather events as a consequence of climate change, but in reality, they're usually influenced by a myriad of factors. More research is needed before we can establish any direct causal link between the two.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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