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Germany: Merz Claims Victory, Scholz Concedes Defeat

Germany: Merz Claims Victory, Scholz Concedes Defeat
Above: Friedrich Merz. Image copyright: Maja Hitij/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

German voters want a right-wing conservative government to bring real changes, as the mainstream CDU/CSU and the nationalist AfD have emerged as the two largest parties in the Bundestag. That desire, however, will be ignored again as the CDU/CSU refuses to cooperate with parties other than from the left.

Narrative B

The rise of the far-right AfD threatens post-war values in Germany, so it's pressing that mainstream parties oppose any cooperation with them to prevent normalizing dangerous nationalist ideologies. Earlier this year, Merz broke that firewall to try to pass an anti-migrant resolution. Now, one can only hope he won't do it again.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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