CDC: U.S. Autism Rate Rises to 1 in 31 Children

CDC: U.S. Autism Rate Rises to 1 in 31 Children
Above: The exterior of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention campus in Chamblee, Georgia, on March 18, 2025. Image copyright: Alyssa Pointer/The Washington Post via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

Rising rates of autism in U.S. children reflect a serious public health crisis that demands urgent investigation into potential environmental causes. The sharp increase cannot be explained by diagnostics alone, pointing to likely preventable factors. Identifying triggers such as toxins, pollutants, pharmaceutical exposures—guided by the science wherever the evidence leads—is essential for future prevention and targeted care.

Narrative B

The rising autism prevalence in U.S. children—now 1 in 31—reflects better screening, broader diagnostic criteria, and improved access to care, especially in underserved communities. This is progress, not crisis. Yet some, like RFK Jr., push alarmist claims and discredited theories like the vaccine-autism myth, distracting from the real work of expanding support, closing care gaps, and fostering inclusion for those on the spectrum.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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