After Kirk Killing, Cato Study Claims Right-Wing Violence Exceeds Left-Wing

After Kirk Killing, Cato Study Claims Right-Wing Violence Exceeds Left-Wing
Above: Photo of Charlie Kirk in a memorial outside of the headquarters of Turning Point USA on Sept. 16, 2025, in Phoenix, Arizona. Image copyright: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

The data is clear: right-wing extremists have been the deadliest domestic terrorist threat in America, responsible for 63% of politically motivated deaths. From the Tree of Life synagogue shooting to the El Paso Walmart attack to the Buffalo supermarket massacre, far-right terrorists have repeatedly carried out mass casualty attacks targeting minorities and political opponents. Trump’s rush to blame the “radical left” for Kirk’s death, while ignoring this pattern, shows how conservatives deflect from their own extremism — a blame game experts warn will likely lead to even more violence.

Right narrative

Regardless of what any report claims, Charlie Kirk’s assassination proves the left’s violent rhetoric has deadly consequences. Years of calling conservatives fascists and Nazis created the conditions for this attack. The suspect engraved anti-fascist slogans on his bullets and discussed Kirk at home as “spreading hate.” Unlike the “blame game” critics warn about, it’s time to call out the side actually responsible — radical left rhetoric and mainstream liberal demonization that has directly led to the political bloodshed we're witnessing today.

Establishment-critical narrative

The blame game began before investigators even identified a suspect, with partisans on both sides immediately trying to score political points from a tragic assassination. This rush to assign collective responsibility to entire political movements based on individual acts of violence has become a dangerous pattern that experts warn could fuel more attacks. The focus should be on addressing the underlying factors that drive political violence rather than weaponizing these tragedies to demonize political opponents and silence debate.

Narrative D

Despite high-profile tragedies like Charlie Kirk’s assassination, politically motivated violence remains extremely uncommon in the United States. From 1975 through 2025, only 3,599 deaths — just 0.35% of all murders — were linked to terrorist attacks, and most were from extraordinary events like 9/11. Even since 2020, politically motivated killings account for only 0.07% of homicides. While tragic, these incidents are statistical outliers, underscoring that the broader threat of political terrorism is far smaller than public discourse often suggests.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2