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Canada's Liberals to Pick Trudeau Successor on March 9

Canada's Liberals to Pick Trudeau Successor on March 9
Above: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during a news conference at Rideau Cottage in Ottawa, Canada on Jan. 6, 2025. Image copyright: Dave Chan/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images

The Spin

Right narrative

The Liberals are set to lose the upcoming election no matter who replaces Trudeau. Despite his resignation, the carbon tax remains the party's Achilles heel, as it directly affects what people care about most: affordability. Recent byelections show the party losing ground even in traditional strongholds, indicating a broader rejection of their policies. The timing of Parliament's prorogation just before another carbon tax hike only underscores this issue.

Left narrative

The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, might reveal their divisiveness in power. Their campaign's heavy reliance on demonizing left-wing "wokeism" suggests a focus on polarization rather than policy. Once they're governing, not just opposing, this tactic could expose their inability to unite, focusing on fear rather than addressing issues like housing or US relations, potentially leading to public alienation and governance failure.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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