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Yemen: Al-Qaida Branch Announces Death of Leader

Yemen: Al-Qaida Branch Announces Death of Leader
Image copyright: Mohammed Hamoud/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Although AQAP continues to pose a serious threat, its ability to carry out attacks outside of Yemen has diminished due to effective US countermeasures. Like Batarfi, his successor is also calling for attacks against the US, and the terrorists might exploit the destabilization of Yemen and the region — fueled by the attacks of the Houthis on the Red Sea — to recruit and rebuild. Only if the US continues to take decisive action can it prevent AQAP from restoring its relevance within the jihadist movement.

Establishment-critical narrative

The death of Batarfi has brought al-Qaida back into the headlines and needs to be placed in a broader context. The fact that AQAP was able to become the most powerful al-Qaida branch in the first place is primarily due to the US-backed war of the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis. The resulting destabilization of Yemen provided the ideal breeding ground for the spread of the Sunni terrorists and declared enemies of the Houthis. That the US is now bombing Yemen is likely to backfire again and bolster both the Houthis and AQAP.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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