Nostradamus pollster predicts how an October surprise could impact election
IndependentOCT 2024
Trump Narrows Harris' Lead in New Poll, Surges Ahead on Betting Markets
Above: Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives for a rally at Dodge County Airport on October 06, 2024 in Juneau, Wisconsin. Image copyright: Scott Olson/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Democratic narrative
It's hard to posit that Trump has narrowed the gap with Harris when most polls are weighting on recalled vote, a controversial and less accurate method that tends to help whoever lost the previous election. Traditional polls still tell a completely different story, and betting markets are no reliable indicator at all.
Republican narrative
With Election Day less than a month away, polls and popular online betting markets are unequivocal that Trump is gaining momentum in the race. Democrats may claim that they aren't worried, but their actions prove otherwise.