Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
MetaculusNOV 10 2024
Bosnia's Security Minister Arrested Over Alleged Graft
Above: Nenad Nešić (R) at a joint press conference in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina on June 7, 2023. Image copyright: Samir Jordamovic/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Facts
The security minister for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nenad Nešić, and six others have been arrested on corruption charges, the country's office for the prosecutor said on Thursday.
The individuals were charged with conspiracy to commit criminal acts, money laundering, abuse of official position or authority, and taking bribes.
The authorities have been investigating alleged corruption at the state-owned company Putevi RS — which translates to Roads RS — where Nešić worked as the general manager between 2016 and 2020.
The Spin
Narrative A
These arrests follow an investigation from the prosecutor's office and the Directorate for Organized Crime of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Nešić is being held accountable for criminal offenses, including not reporting assets worth €8.5M.
Narrative B
Everything about the way this investigation was brought and how the arrests were hastily carried out reeks of foul play. This is an unacceptable procedure and likely a political persecution that has unfairly targeted RS officials.
Nerd narrative
There's an 8% chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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