Versions :<1234567Live

US Prepares to Lift Ban on Sales of Offensive Weapons to Saudi Arabia

    Image copyright: President of the Russian Federation via Wikimedia Commons

    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    If the ongoing peace talks with the Houthi group in Yemen result in an end to the eight-year-old brutal conflict, then easing limitations on arms sales to Saudi Arabia could be a good thing. The geopolitical landscape would change with a peace deal, emphasizing the need to arm Saudi Arabia with weapons to protect itself against Iran, which is a rising regional power. As Saudi Arabia needs to re-arm itself along its southern border to be able to defend itself in the event that there are any future disputes with Houthis, it would also demonstrate to the kingdom that the US is a reliable strategic ally.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    President Biden pledged that human rights would be given first priority in US relations with Saudi Arabia. Human Rights Watch and other rights groups have recorded war crimes committed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Yemeni civilians since the start of the conflict in 2015. Removing the ban on offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia would be a step backward for the White House and a declaration to the international community that the US is not very concerned about human rights. Rather than easing sanctions, the Biden administration should push for the creation of an accountability body in the UN that would look into infractions and assist with any future prosecutions.

    Metaculus Prediction


    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

    Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
    Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

    Sign Up!
    Sign Up Now!