US Jobs Report Exceeds Expectations, Unemployment Hits 4.1%

Above: A job and resource fair in Hendersonville, North Carolina on Nov. 19, 2024. Image copyright: Allison Joyce/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The US Labor Department on Friday announced that the economy added 256K jobs in December, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 153K. In addition, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% in November.

  • Average hourly wages increased by 0.3% to $35.69, marking the 45th consecutive month of record pay. Annual wage growth moderated to 3.9% from previous levels above 4.5%.

  • The economy added approximately 2.2M jobs throughout 2024, averaging 186K jobs per month, which represents a slowdown from 2023's average of 251K monthly gains.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

The robust job market demonstrates remarkable economic resilience by the US. Steady wage growth and broad-based hiring across sectors suggest a soft landing is achievable without a recession. The only uncertainty now stems from policy changes coming from the Trump administration.


Republican narrative

This report isn't a reason for the Biden administration to declare victory. The Federal Reserve is still closely watching inflation, which has ticked up. And although unemployment remains low, several major companies have announced layoffs and overall hiring has slowed significantly. More data will be forthcoming to see just how well the economy is doing.



Metaculus Prediction




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