Ukraine: Allies Pledge More Aid, Europe to Support Irrespective of Trump

Above: German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (L), Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy (C) and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (R) take part in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Jan. 9, 2025. Image copyright: Andreas Arnold/picture alliance/Contributor via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday that allies made pledges of an additional $2B of military aid in what was the final meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group before US Pres.-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

  • Contributions included $500M from the US and $305M (440M CAD) from Canada, while figures from other nations were unclear.


The Spin

Narrative A

The UDCG format must continue under American leadership to maintain effective coordination of military support for Ukraine. Any disruption to the group could weaken the efficacy of its collective response to Russian aggression, leaving Kyiv unnecessarily vulnerable.

Narrative B

European allies are prepared to maintain support for Ukraine independently of the US if necessary, as the collective power of the UDCG remains crucial to preventing Russia from becoming the dominant global power. Whatever line is taken by the Trump administration, Ukraine can stay confident in the support of its European allies.

Pro-Russia narrative

Arming Kyiv is a fruitless endeavor. The US and Europe are wasting billions through their intervention in the Ukrainian conflict. Despite the weapons and money streaming into Kyiv, Ukraine continues to lose to Russia. President Vladimir Putin was right from the beginning, when he warned the West at the Munich meeting in 2007 against expanding NATO into Ukraine. 


Metaculus Prediction



Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO