UK Confirms Trump Will Review Chagos Islands Deal

    Above: The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), or Chagos Islands (formerly the Oil Islands), is an overseas territory of the UK situated in the Indian Ocean, halfway between Africa and Indonesia. Image copyright: Pictures From History/Contributor/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    The Facts

    • UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has delayed a deal to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius until US Pres.-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration can review the agreement, despite previous efforts to complete it before his second term in office.

    • The proposed agreement would allow the UK to maintain control of the Diego Garcia military base, which is used by the US, under a 99-year lease while ceding sovereignty of the East African island. The deal has already received support from US Pres. Joe Biden.


    The Spin

    Left narrative

    While this agreement was never perfect, it was certainly a positive step toward freeing the Chagossian people from colonial rule. The US would still use Diego Garcia for military purposes, but at least it would be returned to a pre-colonial power: Mauritius. If rejected by Trump, the Chagossian people will likely remain colonial subjects for the foreseeable future.

    Right narrative

    After weeks of hysterical stubbornness, Starmer has finally made the right decision. Under this deal, the UK would have paid Chagos millions of pounds per year for 99 years, with no guarantee that it would distance itself from China. Now Trump, who understands this national security issue very well, will likely toss this faulty agreement into the dustbin of history once and for all.

    Cynical narrative

    The Chagos Islands deal was never as black and white as its fierce proponents and opponents portrayed it. Those claiming it was about decolonization, which was a facade to mask US-UK strategic goals, never truly cared about displaced Chagossians. Echoing Hong Kong's handover, the UK's promises ring hollow, while China’s influence in Mauritius risks regional security, turning the islands into geopolitical pawns.


    Metaculus Prediction


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