Trump Temporarily Pausing Tariffs on Canada

Above: US Pres. Donald Trump at the White House on Jan. 30, 2025. Image copyright: Chen Mengtong/Contributor/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images

The Facts

  • US Pres. Donald Trump on Monday agreed to pause plans to apply 25% tariffs on imports from Canada hours after Trump did the same for potential tariffs on goods from Mexico.

  • After several calls with Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly assured Trump he would implement a $1.3B plan to curb border crossings and curb the flow of the drug fentanyl into the US that originates from Canada.

  • In declaring the pause on tariffs, Trudeau described a "good call" with Trump, during which Trudeau agreed to appoint a "Fentanyl Czar," list cartels as "terrorists," and allocate $200M to a new intelligence directive that focuses on organized crime and fentanyl.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Mexico and Canada's rapid backing down in these negotiations shows that Trump's hawkish use of tariffs in foreign policy is already working. The president has managed to better protect US citizens from the flow of illegal immigration and fentanyl across the US border with just mild instability caused to the markets. The US is strong again.


Democratic narrative

Trump's volatile approach to economic diplomacy has earned the US little that wasn't already promised or was being done by Canada and Mexico. Trudeau's border plan was previously announced in December, but after realizing he'd spooked the markets and was going to hurt the US economy, Trump backed down while lying about a great victory.



Metaculus Prediction




Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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