Will at least part of Canada become a U.S. state before January 21, 2033?
MetaculusFeb 09
Trudeau Says Trump's Canada Annexation Talk 'A Real Thing'
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Above: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addresses the Canada-US Economic Summit in Toronto on Feb. 7, 2025. Image copyright: Cole Burston/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Facts
During a Canada-US Economic Summit in Toronto, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on a hot mic stating that US Pres. Donald Trump's comments about absorbing Canada as the 51st state "is a real thing," suggesting Trump's interest stems from access to Canadian critical minerals.
Trump's administration has temporarily postponed the implementation of sweeping 25% tariffs on Canadian goods until March 4, while ordering a study of US-Canada trading relationship due by April 1.
The summit brought together hundreds of business leaders, labor representatives, Indigenous leaders, and public policy experts to discuss strengthening Canada's economy and addressing interprovincial trade barriers.
The Spin
Narrative A
The prospect of annexation is a significant strategic concern for Canada, especially in light of the United States' interest in critical minerals and Arctic resources. Therefore, it is crucial for Canada to safeguard its sovereignty and enhance its economic independence by diversifying its trading partners.
Narrative B
The comments on annexation are primarily negotiating tactics from Trump, used as leverage in trade discussions. The real focus should be on addressing practical issues such as interprovincial trade barriers and strengthening Canada's global economic partnerships.