Swedish Probe Clears Bulgarian Ship in Baltic Cable Damage

Above: The cargo ship Vezhen is anchored outside Karlskrona, Sweden, on Jan. 27, 2025, for examination by Swedish authorities.  Image copyright: Johan Nilsson/Contributor/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Swedish prosecutors released the Malta-flagged vessel Vezhen on Monday after determining that damage to an undersea fiber-optic cable between Sweden and Latvia on January 26, 2024, was not caused by deliberate sabotage.

  • The investigation concluded that a combination of poor weather conditions, equipment deficiencies, and inadequate seamanship contributed to the cable break, which occurred in Swedish territorial waters at a depth of at least 50 meters (164 feet).

  • The Bulgarian shipping company Navibulgar's vessel was transporting fertilizer from Ust-Luga, Russia, to South America when the incident occurred, with investigators confirming that two of the three anchor locking mechanisms had been out of service.


The Spin

Narrative A

The damage to the undersea cable was purely accidental, due to technical failures and severe weather conditions. The ship's crew had no malicious intent. The incident occurred because of legitimate equipment malfunctions and challenging maritime conditions.


Narrative B

The increasing frequency of cable damage in the Baltic Sea, coupled with heightened regional tensions, raises serious security concerns. The pattern of infrastructure incidents since Russia's invasion of Ukraine necessitates enhanced surveillance and protection measures in the region.



Metaculus Prediction