Smith's Final Report Claims Trump Would Have Been Convicted

Above: Special counsel Jack Smith on Aug. 1, 2023. Image copyright: Drew Angerer/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • US Special Counsel Jack Smith on Tuesday released a 137-page report detailing his investigation into Pres.-elect Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election, asserting that prosecutors had sufficient evidence to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial if Trump hadn't won the 2024 election.

  • The Dept. of Justice (DOJ) released volume one of Smith's report covering the 2020 election investigation after US District Judge Aileen Cannon rejected attempts by Trump and his former co-defendants to block it.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Smith and his team clearly stood up for the rule of law with this thorough, unbiased investigation. Trump is only being saved from facing charges by his election win and DOJ policy. The evidence against Trump is so damning that he isn't able to formulate a coherent response to it.

Republican narrative

This entire investigation was a politically motivated witch hunt by an out-of-control prosecutor. Smith's appointment was unconstitutional, and the report represents another attempt to interfere with the peaceful transition of power through false and discredited accusations.


Metaculus Prediction


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