Biden says he thinks he could have beaten Trump in the 2024 election
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Biden Says He Could Have Defeated Trump in 2024 Election
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Above: US Pres. Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden at the White House in Washington, DC, on Jan. 8, 2025. Image copyright: Anna Rose Layden/EPA/Bloomberg via Getty images
The Spin
Left narrative
Joe Biden's instincts about his own electability are absolutely justified. He maintained stronger support among the crucial demographics that ultimately swung the election, particularly union voters and men. The Teamsters' data showed Biden significantly outperforming Harris against Trump, and his established political identity and authenticity resonated with voters in ways Harris couldn't match in her brief 107-day campaign.
Right narrative
The evidence strongly contradicts Pres. Biden's belief that he could have defeated Trump in 2024. YouGov polling just before the election showed Biden trailing Trump by seven points while Harris led by three, with Biden underperforming across every demographic group, including men, women, Hispanics, and independents. His unfavorable ratings remained consistently lower than Harris's and there's no doubt he would have performed worse had he continued in the election.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 1% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
