Myanmar airstrike on detention camp kills dozens, armed opposition group says
GuardianFEB 1
Myanmar Airstrike Kills 28 Detained Family Members of Soldiers
Above: A building that was destroyed in a bombardment carried out by Myanmar's military is seen in Lashio in Myanmar's northern Shan State on Sept. 24, 2024. Image copyright: STR/Contributor/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
The military junta's airstrikes deliberately targeted civilian areas — including schools, hospitals, markets, and detention facilities — constituting war crimes and showing complete disregard for civilian casualties, even when the victims were families of their own soldiers.
Narrative B
This deadly incident in fact reflects the military's struggle to maintain control across multiple fronts, with unclear targeting procedures that may have resulted in unintentional strikes on areas where their own soldiers' families were being held. The fog of war may be to blame for this tragedy.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by April 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
